Iran has plenty of oil for the market, and the market needs it now. But Tehran may struggle to boost production quickly enough to take advantage of current tight market conditions. Talks over renewing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal - which would relieve sanctions on Iranian oil - have slowed in the interregnum between Ebrahim Raisi’s election as president a month ago and his inauguration on 5 August. Most forecasters project a much looser supply and demand balance beyond the first quarter of next year. The longer the JCPOA process drags on, the less favourable the market will be for Iran’s return.
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