European refners face mounting headwinds from waning demand for transport fuels and rising competition from suppliers around the globe. Products demand will fall short of pre-pandemic levels in 2023-24, while the global refning industry faces “a wave” of new capacity coming on line in the same period, trading frm Vitol’s head of research Giovanni Serio told the Argus Crude Live virtual conference on 27 January. Global products demand is poised to fall short of 2019 levels-by around 3mn b/d-in 2023-24, partly because Covid-19 has accelerated the energy transition, especially in Europe. At the same time, refners in the Mideast Gulf plan to add 2mn b/d of capacity by 2023, with expansions of around 2.5mn b/d in Asia-Pacifc and 600,000 b/d in North America adding to the surplus, Serio says.
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