Reliability analysis for complex systems subject to competing failure processes in an uncertain environment

摘要

Reliability analysis of complex systems subject to competing failure processes based on probability theory has received increasing attention. However, in many situations, the observed data is too limited to estimate the parameters and probability distributions of the system by statistic methods. To address this problem, an uncertain degradation models is proposed in this paper under the framework of uncertainty theory. Based on this model, a complex system which is subject to both continuous internal degradation and external shocks is introduced. The continuous internal degradation of the system is controlled by some uncertain factors, and the external shocks are deemed to an uncertain renewal reward process. Reliability for the complex systems is obtained by employing the uncertainty theory. Finally, a case study is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the results obtained in the paper.