Epidemic Trend of COVID-19 Transmission in India During Lockdown-1 Phase

摘要

To assess the current epidemic trend of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 in India, the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 cases in India in terms of Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Case Recovery Rate (CRR) and Mortality rate (MR) COVID-19 have been evaluated during Lockdown-1. The analysis includes (i) epidemic curve of Covid-19 cases (ii) demographic analysis (iii) calculation of the CFR and CRR by different methods (iv) calculation of MR (v) Geo-temporal analysis (vi) epidemiological transmission factor (vii) evaluation of the effects and impact of infection, prevention and control in India. A total of 10,815 COVID-19 confirmed cases have been reported in 31 states/union territories as of April 14, 2020 with 9272 active cases (85.73%), 1190 cured/discharged (11%), and 353 deaths (3.23%). Among confirmed cases, most cases (59%) are aged 20-49 which is working age in India and 76% cases are reported for men. The median age of Indian COVID-19 patients found to be 39. As of April 14, the CFR per total cases in India is 3.32% and per closed cases is 23.27%. The CRR per total cases in India is 11.00% and per closed cases is 76.72%, which indicates that the recovery rate of COVID-19 is more than the fatality rate in India. The prevention and control measures taken by the state and central governments at all levels and measure of maintenance of social distancing by people have resulted in effective curbing in the COVID-19 transmission in India.