Deciphering role of inter and intracity human dispersal on epidemic spread via coupled reaction-diffusion models

摘要

Human mobility has been significantly influencing public health since time immemorial. A susceptible-infected-deceased epidemic reaction diffusion network model using asymptotic transmission rate is proposed to portray the spatial spread of the epidemic among two cities due to population dispersion. Qualitative behaviour including global attractor and persistence property are obtained. We also study asymptotic behaviour of the whole network with the help of asymptotic behaviour at individual cities. The epidemic model shows up two equilibria, (i) the disease-free, and (ii) unique endemic equilibria. An expression that can be used to calculate the basic reproduction number for heterogeneous environment, for the entire network is obtained. We use graph theory to analyze the global stability of our diffusive two-city model. We also performed bifurcation analysis and discovered that endemic equilibrium changes stability via Hopf bifurcations. A significant reduction in the number of infectives were observed when proper migration rate is maintained between the cities. Numerical results are provided to illuminate and clarify theoretical findings. Simulation experiments for two-dimensional spatial models show that infectious populations will increase if contact heterogeneity is increased, but it will decline if infective populations perform more local random movement. We observe that infection risk may be understated if the parameters used to estimate the basic reproduction number remains unchanged through space or time.