Looking ahead

摘要

There has been a fall of over 1 mn bpd (over 95%) in Libyan oil exports since January, as rebel general Haftar imposes a blockade in an attempt to force a breakthrough in the long-running civil war, while overseas backers on both sides get ever more involved. Libya's civil war has been in full swing since General Khalifa Haftar launched his offensive in April 2019 against the Tripoli-based UN-recognised Government of National Accord, or GNA (led by Fayez al-Sarraj); and the opposing sides continue to face off against each other amid worsening conflict. Beginning in mid-January, Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) alongside local tribes implemented a blockade of oil exports, revenue from which goes to the central bank in GNA-controlled Tripoli. Only offshore volumes and gas have escaped his control, although there were some signs by late April that the blockade could be easing.