Trade structure and risk transmission in the international automotive Li-ion batteries trade

摘要

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are an essential part for electric vehicles (EVs) and have experienced rapid growth with the strong demand for EVs. Concerns over the sustainable supply of EV-LIBs have been voiced, but only a few studies have investigated the international trade in EV-LIBs, which has a significant impact on EV production in the complicated and volatile international trade environment. To fill this gap, this study investigates the international EV-LIB trade from a dynamic perspective. First, the dynamic structural evolution of the EV-LIB trade from 2012 to 2019 is explored from three perspectives, i.e., backbone structure, geospatial characteristics and trade communities, by constructing a weighted and directed network. Second, the hidden systemic risks in the international EV-LIB trade are revealed by the proposed trade network risk transmission (TNRT) model in two supply shortage scenarios. The results show a heterogeneous structure in the backbone network, and the trade barycenter is transitioning from Asia to Europe. In addition, a "robust-yet-fragile" characterization is revealed in the global EV-LIB trade network, and the hidden risks in leading EV-LIB exporter nodes and trade edges are uncovered. The findings will support authorities seeking effective strategies to manage the EV-LIB trade and build a more resilient trade system.