Econometric Modeling of the Balanced Potential Growth Rate of the Main Russian Macroeconomic Variables

摘要

This paper provides a vector autoregression model with an additional regularization problem similar to the Hodrick–Prescott filter problem to model a single, i.e., balanced, growth rate of the structural component of the main macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy. This model includes the real GDP without government expenditure, the real household consumption, real fixed capital investment, the real exports, the real imports, and the real effective ruble exchange rate. Oil prices are exogenously included in the model. It is assumed that the GDP without government expenditure and its components have a balanced potential growth rate. The actual discrepancies in the time series are explained by the different long-term oil price multipliers and by the stochastic shocks. Based on the proposed model, we calculate the impacts of the oil price shocks and the structural component on the GDP without government expenditure and its components.