A probabilistic approach for attributing temperature changes to synoptic type frequency

Nilsen Irene B.; Stagge James H.; Tallaksen Lena M.

摘要

ABSTRACT xml:id="joc4894-para-0001"> To understand the cause of regional temperature change, it is common to separate the temperature change signal into changes in atmospheric synoptic circulation and other factors, so‐called within‐type changes. In this study, we suggest a novel probabilistic approach that allows detection of months and regions where temperature changes can mainly be attributed to changes in synoptic circulation and where within‐type changes also play a role. By combining resampling with a Monte Carlo test, we assess the likelihood that the observed warming can be explained by synoptic circulation changes alone. This method is applicable for any variable, and in any region of the world. We applied it to an example case using gridded <fc>WATCH</fc> Forcing Data <fc>ERA</fc> ‐Interim ( <fc>WFDEI</fc> ) temperature data and synoptic types derived from the <fc>SynopVis</fc> Grosswetterlagen catalogue (1981–2010). For this European example, the most widespread warming was found in summer, with up to 60% of the land area experiencing significant warming during August, notably in Eastern and Northern Europe. In spring and autumn, this area was reduced to 10–30%. In December and January, only about 5% of the land area experienced significant warming, most pronounced in northern Scandinavia. The probabilistic approach revealed that changes in synoptic circulation could not account for all the observed ( <fc>WFDEI</fc> ) warming, with the exception of regions in southeastern Europe in February and Western Europe in May. Significant warming in other months and regions, such as the large‐scale warming in April, June, July, August, and November, must also be caused by other factors. Within‐type changes were confirmed </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span>None </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共13页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Nilsen Irene B.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Nilsen Irene B.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Stagge James H.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Stagge James H.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Tallaksen Lena M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tallaksen Lena M.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway;</p> <p>Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway;</p> <p>Department of GeosciencesUniversity of OsloNorway;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=temperature&option=203" rel="nofollow">temperature;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=trend detection&option=203" rel="nofollow">trend detection;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=trend attribution&option=203" rel="nofollow">trend attribution;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=atmospheric circulation&option=203" rel="nofollow">atmospheric circulation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=within‐type changes&option=203" rel="nofollow">within‐type changes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=probabilistic approach&option=203" rel="nofollow">probabilistic approach;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=dynamic causes&option=203" rel="nofollow">dynamic causes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=thermodynamic causes&option=203" rel="nofollow">thermodynamic causes;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：温度;趋势检测;趋势归因;大气循环;型在型变化;概率方法;动态原因;热力学原因; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul 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R. </a> <span>1982</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：利用对地静止卫星数据研究海温变化的天气学方法</span> </p> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-cn_meeting-28963_thesis/020222109732.html">An Algorithm for Discretization of Continuous Type of Attributes which Keeps Classification Property Invariant</a> <b>[C]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . </a> <span> <a href="/conference-cn-28963/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 第三届中国Rough集与软计算机学术研讨会 </a> <span> <span> . 2003</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-domestic_mphd_thesis/020311462019.html">Evaluation of Recurrent laryngeal Nerve, Clubbed Fingers, Blood Flow Velocity and Major types of Arthritis by High Frequency Ultrasound Imaging</a> <b>[A] </b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Dr. Homagni Sikha Roy&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 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