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Synoptic classification in 21st century CMIP5 predictions over the Eastern Mediterranean with focus on cyclones

机译:21世纪CMIP5在东部地中海的21世纪CMIP5预测的概要分类,重点在旋风上

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ABSTRACT >The Mediterranean has been recognized as a ‘hot spot’, currently influenced by climate change, and predicted to be strongly affected in the future by significant warming and drying. This trend is expected to be expressed in changes in the occurrence and intensity of Mediterranean cyclones, in general, and of East Mediterranean (EM), i.e. Cyprus Lows (CL), in particular, as well as in the occurrence of all other synoptic systems dominating the region. > Here we have modified the semi‐objective synoptic classification (Alpert <fi>et al.</fi> , 2004) to investigate future changes in the occurrence of EM synoptic types, with an emphasis on CLs. The modified classification was applied to eight CMIP5 models for the present (1986–2005), mid‐21st century (2046–2065) and end of the century (2081–2100) periods, for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. >The modified classification captured the synoptic‐type frequencies for the present period well, and particularly excelled in capturing that of the CLs. For the future period, approximately a 35% reduction in CL occurrence is found towards the end of the 21st century (RCP8.5). Analysing this reduction for each of the seven specific types of CLs showed that lows located to the west of Cyprus are the main contributors to this decrease. The reductions in the frequencies of CLs are accompanied by an increase in the frequencies of Red Sea Troughs in winter. The predicted changes in the occurrence of various synoptic types in general and of CLs, in particular, will lead to a more accurate forecast of local potential climatic hazards. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译:</span>None </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共8页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hochman Assaf&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Hochman Assaf;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Harpaz Tzvika&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Harpaz Tzvika;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Saaroni Hadas&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Saaroni Hadas;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Alpert Pinhas&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Alpert Pinhas;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Geophysics School of GeosciencesTel‐Aviv UniversityIsrael;</p> <p>Department of Geophysics School of GeosciencesTel‐Aviv UniversityIsrael;</p> <p>Department of Geophysics School of GeosciencesTel‐Aviv UniversityIsrael;</p> <p>Department of Geophysics School of GeosciencesTel‐Aviv UniversityIsrael;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CMIP5&option=203" rel="nofollow">CMIP5;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=synoptic classification&option=203" rel="nofollow">synoptic classification;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Cyprus Lows&option=203" rel="nofollow">Cyprus Lows;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=cyclones&option=203" rel="nofollow">cyclones;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Eastern Mediterranean&option=203" rel="nofollow">Eastern Mediterranean;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译:CMIP5;天气分类;塞浦路斯低谷;旋风;地中海东部; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li 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href="/ntis-science-report_nasa_thesis/02071684341.html">Synoptics and Dynamics of Orographically Induced Cyclones in the Mediterranean</a> <b>[R] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Pichler, H.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Pichler, H.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Steinacker, R.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Steinacker, R. </a> <span>1986</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译:地中海的地形学旋风的概要和动力学</span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img 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