Regional changes of precipitation and temperature over Bangladesh using bias‐corrected multi‐model ensemble projections considering high‐emission pathways

Fahad Md. Golam Rabbani; Saiful Islam A. K. M.; Nazari Rouzbeh; Alfi Hasan M.; Tarekul Islam G. M.; Bala Sujit Kumar

摘要

ABSTRACT >A multi‐model ensemble provides useful information about the uncertainty of the future changes of climate. High‐emission scenarios using representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) of the Fifth Phase Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project (CMIP5) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also aids to capture the possible extremity of the climate change. Using the CMIP5 regional climate modelling predictions, this study analyses the distribution of the temperature and precipitation in Bangladesh in the recent years (1971–2000) and in three future periods (2010–2040, 2041–2070 and 2070–2100) considering RCP8.5 scenarios. Climate changes are expressed in terms of 30‐year return values of annual near‐surface temperature and 24‐h precipitation amounts. At the end of the century, the mean temperature increase over Bangladesh among the 11 RCMs will vary from 5.77 to 3.24 °C. Spatial analysis of the 11 RCMs exhibited that the southwest and the south central parts of Bangladesh will experience a greater temperature rise in the future. Possible changes in rainfall are also exhibited both temporally and spatially. Based on the analysis of all the RCMs, a significant increase of rainfall in the pre‐ and post‐monsoon period is observed. It is also evident that monsoon rainfall will not increase in comparison with pre‐monsoon season. Zonal statistics of 64 districts of Bangladesh are also conducted for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s to find out the most exposed regions in terms of the highest rise in temperature and changes in precipitation. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span>None </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第4期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共15页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Fahad Md. Golam Rabbani&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Fahad Md. Golam Rabbani;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Saiful Islam A. K. M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Saiful Islam A. K. M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Nazari Rouzbeh&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Nazari Rouzbeh;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Alfi Hasan M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Alfi Hasan M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Tarekul Islam G. M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tarekul Islam G. M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bala Sujit Kumar&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Bala Sujit Kumar;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringRowan UniversityGlassboro NJ USA;</p> <p>Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)Dhaka Bangladesh;</p> <p>Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringRowan UniversityGlassboro NJ USA;</p> <p>Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Rhode IslandKingston RI USA;</p> <p>Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)Dhaka Bangladesh;</p> <p>Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)Dhaka Bangladesh;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CMIP5&option=203" rel="nofollow">CMIP5;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=heavy precipitation&option=203" rel="nofollow">heavy precipitation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=RCP&option=203" rel="nofollow">RCP;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=regional climate modelling&option=203" rel="nofollow">regional climate modelling;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=high end emission&option=203" rel="nofollow">high end emission;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气候变化;CMIP5;重度降水;RCP;区域气候建模;高端排放; 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