Brent: Near-Term Risks Mount, But Long-Term Prospects Improve

摘要

We had made a signifcant upward revision to our oil price forecast this month. We now forecast global benchmark Brent to average USD64.0/bbl and USD63.0/bbl in 2021 and 2022, respectively, up from USD58.0/bbl and USD56.0/bbl previously. Brent rallied around 20.0% in February, refecting tighter fundamentals and ebullient market sentiment. In part, the upward revision was made to refect unanticipated strength in the year to date. It also captures our increasingly bullish expectations the post-pandemic recovery.