Correlation analysis of terrestrial and satellite meteodata in the territory of the Republic of Buryatia (Eastern Siberia, Russian Federation) with forest fire statistics

摘要

Due to global climate change in the Republic of Buryatia (Eastern Siberia, Russia), significant transformations of the natural environment are observed. Over the past 20 years, due to abnormally high air temperatures and increased aridity of the territory, the number of forest fires has increased 1.5 times, and the area more than 5 times. The article discusses the differences in the influence of meteorological factors on the occurrence and development of fires in two climatically contrasted forestries of the Republic of Buryatia (in the humid Baikalskoe forestry and in arid Zaigraevskoe). It was revealed that the influence of average monthly temperatures on the occurrence and development of fires is not significant compared to the effect of liquid precipitation in the arid Zaigraevskoe forestry. A statistically significant closeness of the relationship between soil moisture according to satellite measurements and fire indicators in both forestries was established with a confidence level of 95%. The VEGA remote sensing database does not have detailed accuracy, but it determines the qualitative trends in soil moisture change over vast areas (pixel size is about 40 km). For instrumental measurements in situ and verification of satellite information on soil moisture, it is proposed to use the measurement data of the atmospheric-soil measuring complex.