Coupling large-scale climate indices with a stochastic weather generator to improve long-term streamflow forecasts in a Canadian watershed

摘要

This paper aims at improving long-term streamflow forecasts by implementing a novel technique based on conditioning the parameters of a stochastic weather generator on large-scale climate indices, with varying lengths of training periods during the establishment of correlations. The most important climate indices are identified by looking at yearly correlations between a set of 40 indices and meteorological data (precipitation and temperature) at the watershed scale. A linear model is then constructed to identify precipitation and temperature anomalies to induce perturbations in the stochastic weather generator. Time windows of 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 years are used in determining the optimal linear model. The performance of the proposed approach is assessed against that of a resampling of past climatology and using the same stochastic weather generator unconditioned on climate indices. Each member of the ensemble weather forecast is then fed to a hydrological model to create the Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts (ESF) with a one-year forecasting horizon. The three approaches are tested in hindcast mode over a 30-year period at 12 forecast dates. Results show that temperatures are significantly correlated with large-scale climate indices, whereas precipitation is only weakly related to the same indices. The length of the time window has a considerable impact on the prediction ability of the linear models. The precipitation models based on short duration time windows performed better than those based on longer windows, while the reverse was found for the temperature models. A comparison between all three Ensemble Streamflow Forecast approaches is assessed using the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) metric. Results show that the proposed method improves long-term streamflow forecasting, particularly the volumetric bias and the peak flows during the spring flood.