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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of neurosurgical sciences >The Risks of Election Observation: International Condemnation and Post-Election Violence
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The Risks of Election Observation: International Condemnation and Post-Election Violence

机译:选举观察的风险:国际谴责和选举后暴力

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Research on international election observation shows that observation reduces fraud, encourages participation, and boosts confidence in the election. However, this conventional account misses the negative, violence-inducing potential of observer criticism. This is the first study examining how observer criticism influences post-election violence. Democracy depends on the loser's consent, and the willingness of election losers to be governed by the winners can be influenced by observer criticism. When reputable observers criticize the credibility of an election, they can encourage losers to challenge the result. Observer criticism strengthens the electoral loser by legitimizing a challenge and serving as a focal point for mobilization. Using data on post-election violence in thirty-eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa since 1990, I show that internationally condemned elections are more likely to turn violent than not-condemned elections. These results are robust to various control variables (including observer presence and election fraud) and accounting for potential selection, spuriousness, endogeneity, and omitted variables.
机译:国际选举观察的研究表明,观察减少了欺诈,鼓励参与,并提升对选举的信心。然而,这个传统的叙述错过了观察者批评的负面,暴力诱导潜力。这是第一项研究审查观察员批评如何影响选举后暴力。民主取决于失败者的同意,选举失败者的愿意受到赢家的管辖可能受到观察员批评的影响。当信誉良好的观察者批评选举的可信度时,他们可以鼓励失败者挑战结果。观察员批评通过合法化挑战并作为动员的焦点来加强选举失败者。自1990年以来,在撒哈拉以南非洲三十八个国家的选举后暴力数据,我表明,国际谴责的选举比不谴责的选举更有可能变得暴力。这些结果对于各种控制变量(包括观察者的存在和选举欺诈)以及占潜在选择,虚假性,内能性和省略变量的鲁棒性。

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