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A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers

机译:基于DSGE的政府支出乘数估计的陷阱

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This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a DSGE context. We stress a source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of endogenous government expenditures and Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures. Due to cross-equation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and, consequently, the long-run GSM. An estimated version of our model with US postwar data shows that this bias matters quantitatively. The results are robust to a number of perturbations.
机译:本文探讨了在DSGE环境下与政府支出乘数(GSM)估算有关的问题。我们强调,内源性政府支出与私人消费与政府支出之间的Edgeworth互补性相结合会导致GSM产生偏见。由于交叉方程式的限制,在估算阶段忽略政府政策的内生成分会导致计量经济学家低估Edgeworth互补性的程度,从而低估了长期的GSM。我们使用美国战后数据估算的模型表明,这种偏差在数量上很重要。结果对于许多扰动是鲁棒的。

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