Price Rally Has Fundamental Support, Too

摘要

The price rally that’s lifted Brent near $50 per barrel recently from $35 in early November is largely based on hopes that Covid-19 vaccines will boost 2021 oil demand (PIW Nov.20’20). But the rally does have some underlying fundamental support, too. Despite surplus inventories, Opec- plus producers through supply cuts have tightened balances in the crucial Asian crude market and now the impact is spreading to the Atlantic Basin (PIW Dec.4’20). In fact, physical markets have strengthened more than futures contracts lately, with refiners now paying up for spot supply over later deliveries — as if the world could be short crude in the near future.