Stochastic analysis of in-host HCV dynamics through budding and bursting process

摘要

Stochastic models for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection based on the dynamics of a deterministic model incorporating both modes of infection transmission (virus-to-cell and cell-to-cell) and antibody response with the consideration of natural cure of infected hepatocytes are developed and analyzed. In the model formulation, the two processes for the release of virions, namely, budding and bursting are assumed. The Itostochastic differential equation (SDE) models for both budding and bursting processes with fixed as well as variable burst size are constructed using the property of linear transformation for multivariate normal distribution and the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) models utilizing the theory of multitype continuous-time branching process in its derivation. The stochastic means with standard deviations for the SDE model variables are numerically calculated and graphically compared with the results from the deterministic model. The findings suggest that the probability of virus extinction estimated from the CTMC models is not only dependent on the case whether the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, but it also depends on the initial viral load. The probability of virus extinction is comparatively higher in case of budding than in case of bursting. Furthermore, the forward Kolmogorov and moment equations corresponding to the SDE models for both budding and bursting are derived and numerically illustrated with a particular case. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.