No quarter given

摘要

Opec and its non-Opec partners have achieved full compliance with their supply cuts. They are now relying on a large seasonal rise in oil consumption in the third quarter to accelerate the return of inventories to recent historic norms. Early signs are not encouraging. Demand growth has been sluggish this year, and well below the rapid increases in 2015-16. The US gasoline market - a key element of third-quarter demand - has been shrinking. This is all to say nothing of supply increases outside the reach of the production deal. Opec is considering expanding its cuts. It may have to if it is still to achieve its goal by early 2018.