Lost influence

摘要

Opec is losing influence on oil pricing. The organisation is for now enjoying success, along with its non-Opec partners, in accelerating the rebalancing of supply and demand. Spot prices are firming again after a blip last month, brought about by the market's narrow focus on US crude stocks. But the evolution of forward pricing reflects a growing consensus that future marginal supply growth lies in the US tight oil sector. The flattening of the longer-term cost curve points to a return to stability not seen in forward markets in nearly 15 years. Marginal pricing will come from shale, reducing Opec's ability to manage the market.