COTTON: Review of the World Situation--THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON

摘要

Primarily because of improved prospects in China, world cotton production in 1995/96 is now estimated at 19.6 million tons, up from 19.1 million at the end of October; production in 1994/95 was 900,000 tons less. An additional rise in world productionto more than 20 million tons is likely in 1996/97 because of continued gains in area tied to above-average prices. World consumption is estimated at 19 million tons in 1995/96, an increase of 3.2% from 1994/95 but still 600,000 tons less than production. Growth of 2.2% to 19.4 million tons is forecast for 1996/97. World imports of cotton are declining because ofreduced purchases by China (Mainland). World stocks are building, including stocks outside China (Mainland). However, because consumption is rising, the ratio of stocks outside China (Mainland) to consumption outside China (Mainland) is expected to fall in 1995/96. By 1996/97, the rise in world production will probably lead to an increase in the ratio of non-China (Mainland) stocks-to-use.