REVIEW OF 2010/11

摘要

2010/11 started with the lowest level of global carryover stocks in 15 years, 8.5 million tons, following a season of rebounding cotton mill use and diminishing production. After three years of decline, world cotton production rebounded by 12% to 24.7million tons in 2010/11. This increase was driven by an expansion in cotton area in response to the higher prices received by farmers in 2009/10. The average yield remained stable at 734 kg/ha, below the peak of 793 kg/ha reached in 2007/08. Demand forcotton by spinners was very strong in the first few months of the season, as spinners were looking to rebuild their depleted stocks and to satisfy rebounding retail textile sales. However, as cotton prices rose to record highs while demand for cotton yarn weakened, spinners had to reduce their activity in the second half of the season. Overall, global cotton consumption decreased by 3% to 24.5 million tons in 2010/11. As a result of the balance between production and consumption, world stocks increasedonly slightly to 8.7 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio remained very tight, at 36%, vs. a ten-year average of 49% (1999/00 to 2008/09). High prices and low stocks, as well as trade restrictions, kept world cotton trade stable, at 7.7 million tons. The season-average Cotlook A Index more than doubled from $0.78/lb in 2009/10 to $1.64/lb in 2010/11. However, the A Index declined significantly after reaching a record in March 2011, and was not published after June 9,2011, or two months before the official end of the season.