If taken in isolation, the recent market action would indicate that copper had peaked and was heading downwards. After pulling back from the high at 5120, the market rallied but not did not manage to move back above this high, failing, instead, just below 5000. Technically, this market would normally be considered to be in a downtrend, with a strong break above 5000, on a closing basis and confirmed by good volume, needed to reverse the trend. The major caveat here is the action of copper before the early February reversal. The exceptionally strong and prolonged bull run would merit a more conclusive reversal pattern than this rather modest presentation, which may suggest to some latent buyers than the up-trend is not over and that a fresh buying opportunity may now be available. Trends of the magnitude that we have seen provoke such commitment that there may still be buyers prepared to enter the market. On the downside, the steady performance of copper on the way up makes it hard to find a level which was then resistance and which now would offer support. 4649 is marginal, then 4520. The RSI has gone from critically overbought to under 40, indicating that the fall has been slightly too severe. A correction from this level may be the catalyst for a recovery to the key 5120 level.
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