Chapter 2 The market outlook

摘要

In line with a projected market surplus of 46,000 tonnes this year, almost 40,000 tonnes larger than the one recorded in 2011, CRU expects the annual average nickel price to fall by 23% to $17,501/tonnes in 2012. A combination of poor macroeconomic news, which has inherently driven nickel consumption lower, and rising nickel supply primarily on account of higher output at existing operations as opposed to strong gains in new projects, which have been facing problems, has been the key determinants in keeping a lid on major upward price movements. We expect prices to rebound by 3.5% q/q in Q4, albeit from an exceptionally low base.