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Universal Behaviour of Extreme Value Statistics for Selected Observables of Dynamical Systems

机译:动力系统选定观测值极值统计的普适性。

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The main results of the extreme value theory developed for the investigation of the observables of dynamical systems rely, up to now, on the block maxima approach. In this framework, extremes are identified with the block maxima of the time series of the chosen observable, in the limit of infinitely long blocks. It has been proved that, assuming suitable mixing conditions for the underlying dynamical systems, the extremes of a specific class of observables are distributed according to the so called Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Direct calculations show that in the case of quasi-periodic dynamics the block maxima are not distributed according to the GEV distribution. In this paper we show that considering the exceedances over a given threshold instead of the block-maxima approach it is possible to obtain a Generalised Pareto Distribution also for extremes computed in systems which do not satisfy mixing conditions. Requiring that the invariant measure locally scales with a well defined exponent-the local dimension-, we show that the limiting distribution for the exceedances of the observables previously studied with the block maxima approach is a Generalised Pareto distribution where the parameters depend only on the local dimensions and the values of the threshold but not on the number of observations considered. We also provide connections with the results obtained with the block maxima approach. In order to provide further support to our findings, we present the results of numerical experiments carried out considering the well-known Chirikov standard map.
机译:迄今为止,为研究动力系统的可观性而开发的极值理论的主要结果依赖于块最大值方法。在此框架中,在无限长的块的限制中,以选定可观察到的时间序列的块最大值来标识极端。已经证明,假设适用于基础动力系统的合适混合条件,则根据所谓的广义极值(GEV)分布来分配特定类别的可观测值的极值。直接计算表明,在准周期动力学情况下,块最大值未根据GEV分布进行分配。在本文中,我们表明,考虑给定阈值上的超出量而不是块最大值方法,对于在不满足混合条件的系统中计算出的极值,也可以获得广义帕累托分布。要求不变度量在局部尺度上具有明确定义的指数-局部维数-我们证明了以前使用块最大值方法研究的可观测值的超出范围的极限分布是广义帕累托分布,其中参数仅取决于局部维度和阈值,但不考虑所考虑的观察数。我们还提供了与使用块最大值方法获得的结果的联系。为了为我们的发现提供进一步的支持,我们介绍了考虑著名的Chirikov标准图进行的数值实验的结果。

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