A Few Thoughts about Assisted Migration

摘要

Some believe that increases in C02 will cause rapid changes in the climate, habitat loss will occur, plants will not be able to adapt quickly enough, and mass die-off of trees will result. For example, one "guessing paper" suggests that 24% of the flora and fauna in temperate deciduous forests might be extinct by mid-century (tinyurl.com/ lubgqoo). Some reports now give the im- pression that (nonthreatened) tree species can be saved by using computers to guess at optimal future environments. Some say "We can predict with some certainty how species, populations, and ecosystems will be affected by climate change." For example, one pre- cise guess suggests that in just 37 years, only 61.23% of the current range will be suitable for growing Pinus taeda (tinyurl.com/ nqblh6g). As someone who has no faith in the accuracy (and precision) of this guess, I would like to share some thoughts.