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A consistent nonparametric test of ergodicity for time series with applications

机译:应用程序对时间序列进行遍历性的一致非参数检验

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摘要

We propose a set of algorithms for testing the ergodicity of empirical time series, without reliance on a specific parametric framework. It is shown that the resulting test asymptotically obtains the correct size for stationary and nonstationary processes, and maximal power against non-ergodic but stationary alternatives. The test will not reject in the presence of nonstationarity that does not lead to ergodic failure. The method is used to investigate debates over stability of monetary aggregates relative to GDP, and the mean reversion hypothesis with respect to high frequency data on exchange rates. Both the Monte Carlo and data analysis results suggest that the test has good size and power performance.
机译:我们提出了一组算法来测试经验时间序列的遍历性,而无需依赖特定的参数框架。结果表明,所得测试渐近地获得了平稳和非平稳过程的正确大小,以及针对非遍历但平稳的替代方案的最大功效。在不会导致遍历失败的非平稳状态下,测试不会被拒绝。该方法用于调查关于货币总量相对于GDP的稳定性的辩论,以及有关汇率高频数据的均值回归假设。蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)和数据分析结果均表明该测试具有良好的尺寸和功率性能。

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