Uncovering Dominant-Satellite Relationshipsin the U.S. Soybean Basis:Temporal Causation and Spatial Dependence

摘要

This study examines the degree to which market information is shared in discovering the local basis. The analysis draws from tests of temporal causation and spatial dependence of weekly county-level soybean basis values across 13 markets. Time seriesanalysis shows that local soybean basis levels have some tendency to follow basis levels at export locations (Toledo and U.S. Gulf). Processing centers tend to show the most independence in basis discovery. Spatial statistics suggest a similar phenomenonin which basis values at interior locations are highly correlated with neighboring locations. The patterns of spatial correlation appear consistent throughout the growing season.