Editor's Note: As we've stated in previous issues, one of the most useful gauges of the trend in crop conditions (and yield potential) is the Doane's Crop Condition Index. We take weekly crop condition reports from USDAfor major producing states and apply a weighting system that gives us a single number that can be compared to the previous week, the previous year, or even a 10-year average for that week. While it is very reliable in measuring the trend in yield potential and even the rate of change in yield potential, the one big shortcoming is that it cannot tell us what the "starting" yield potential was. For that we have to start with an assumption of "trendline" yield, which means looking at the historical trend in yields and projecting that trend another year. But we learned last year, particularly in soybeans, that the trend may be accelerating due to major advances in breeding and stress tolerance. For perspective, a "perfect" index score would be 400, achievable only if 100% of the crop was rated "excellent" by USDA. The worst possible score would be 100, where 100% of the crop rated poor to very poor.
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