Controlled trials of vitamin D, causality and type 2 statistical error

摘要

Two recent studies published in The Lancet (Autier et al. (2013) Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2, 76-89 and Bolland et al. (2014) Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol 2, 307-320) have concluded that low levels of vitamin D are not a cause but a consequence of ill health brought about by reduced exposure to the sun, an association known as 'reverse causality'. The scientific evidence and reasoning for these conclusions are examined here and found to be faulty. A null result in a clinical trial of vitamin D in adults need not lead to a conclusion of reverse causation when low vitamin D is found in observational studies of the same disease earlier in life. To assume an explanation of reverse causality has close similarities with type 2 statistical error.