Comment on Barclay and Vreysen: Published dynamic population model for tsetse cannot fit field data

摘要

The structure, and assumed parameter values, of a recent dynamic population model for tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae) render it unable to fit published data on tsetse control programs using odor-baited targets, insecticide-treated cattle and the sterile insect technique (SIT). The underlying problem is a mismatch between the small size of the mapped cells (1 ha) and the long time-step, which allows flies to move only once every 5 days, and then only to an adjacent cell. Assumed rates of tsetse dispersal and killing by odor-baited targets are consequently at least an order of magnitude lower than observed in the field. Suggestions that Glossina pallidipes could be eradicated more rapidly with SIT, than using hundreds of targets per km(2), is contradicted both by the field data and by three other independent modeling studies.