How Long Will We Live?

摘要

ONE OF THE most notable achievements of modern societies is a large rise in human longevity. Since 1800 life expectancy at birth has doubled from about 40 years to nearly 80 years. Recent mortality trends are well established, but there is considerable disagreement among demographers and biologists about what lies ahead. Pessimists believe we are approaching limits to life expectancy, while optimists expect continued rapid improvements with no limits. Much is at stake: improvements in longevity are akey cause of skyrocketing costs of pensions and healthcare for the elderly. After a brief review of the controversy about future trends, this study examines past trends in the components of life expectancy at birth. The projection of these components provides the basis for assessing plausible future trends in longevity. The focus throughout is on high-income countries with low levels of mortality.