ASSESSING VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE: LAYING THE FOUNDATION OF AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

摘要

Agriculture is a sector known for its dependency on climate. Although for centuries, Canadian farmers have coped with climate with relative success, climate variability remains a major challenge. According to the projections of global circulation models (GCMs), this challenge will be exacerbated in the future due to elevated mean temperatures and increased frequency of extreme events. Some areas of the Canadian Prairies are expected to be in the forefront of these impacts. In particular, a significant shift of climatic and ecological regimes is expected to occur, entailing changes in land use patterns as well as the associated economic fabrics of the communities. What will be the magnitude and rate of these changes? Will the impacts exceed the coping range of the Prairie farmers? What adaptation options may strengthen the collective capacity of the Prairie communities in coping with the changes? This paper is based on a project being conducted jointly by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Natural Resources Canada to address these questions. The project is currently at the stage of preparing the database, the necessary foundation for modelling and analysis from which answers to these questions will be sought.