Sarima Modelling and Forecasting of Monthly Rainfall in the Brong Ahafo Region of Ghana

摘要

Statistical modelling and data analysis is a crucial instrument in understanding rainfall processes. This article aims at examining the rainfall pattern and fit a suitable model for rainfall prediction in the Brong Ahafo (BA) Region of Ghana. Data from 1975 to 2009 were collected from the Department of Meteorology and Climatology in the BA region. The results revealed that the region experience much rainfall in the months of September and October, and least amount of rainfall in the months of January, December and February. SARIMA (0,0,0)×(1,1,1)_(12), with an AIC score of 8.985894, has been identified as an appropriate model for predicting monthly average rainfall figures for the Brong Ahafo Region of Ghana and hope that when adopted by the Ghana Metrological Agency and other relevant governmental organisations like the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO), it will in the long run help in accurate forecasting and education of the populace on rainfall expectancies.