THE BOOM IN NONFUEL COMMODITY PRICES: CAN IT LAST?

摘要

Over the past four years, fuel and nonfuel commodity prices have risen significantly. Developments in fuel markets (especially oil) have dominated the attention of policymakers so far, although the increase in nonfuel commodity prices has also had considerable consequences for trade balances and growth in many countries. Nonfuel commodities have a higher share in world trade (about 14 percent during 2000-04) than fuel commodities (7 percent). As in the case of oil, many developing countries are highly dependent on nonfuel commodities as a source of export earnings—36 countries have a ratio of nonfuel commodity exports to GDP of over 10 percent, and in 92 countries the ratio is over 5 percent (Figure 5.1). Indeed, in many low-income countries, a large share of export receipts are generated by just a few commodities (see Table 5.1 for selected examples). Moreover, prices of some nonfuel commodities have increased more than oil prices—for example, the IMF metals index has risen by 180 percent in real terms since 2002, while oil prices increased by 157 percent.