Use of electric vehicles orrnhydrogen in the Danish transportrnsector in 2050?

摘要

Denmark has an ambitious long-term goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)rnemissions from the transport sector with an overall climate target to be independentrnof fossil-fuel consumption by 2050. We compare a likely scenario withrntwo alternative ways to achieve the goal—either with a high percentage of electricrnvehicles (EV) or with a high percentage of hydrogen use for transportation.rnThe STREAM model—an energy scenario simulating tool—is used to model therndifferent scenarios and their integration with the electricity and heating systems.rnThe major findings are that an increased share of EV can reduce the socioeconomicrncost of the energy system in 2050. However, electricity demand for H2rngeneration via electrolysis is more flexible than EV charging and the productionrncan therefore, to a larger degree be used to out-balance variable electricity surplusrnfrom a high share of wind energy in the power system, reducing the investmentsrnin backup capacity. Whether the hydrogen scenario (H2S) is more costlyrnto implement than the EV scenario (EVS) mainly depends on the technologicalrndevelopment—especially the improvement on the efficiency of the conversionrnfrom electricity to H2 and the cost of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. Therefore,rnthe major drivers of a successful H2S are a high efficient flexible H2 productionrnin 2050 and lower vehicle costs, which increase the stability of the power grid,rncompared to the EVS. Hence, from a socioeconomic view point, the technologicalrnpath in innovation to achieve fossil-free transport systems should have vehiclerncosts and electrolyzers efficiency as their main drivers toward 2050.