Flood study of industrial site by extreme flood risk: uncertainties with hydrologic and hydraulic extreme values

摘要

Under complementary assessment conducted after the Japanese events of 2011, operator of an industrial site wanted to study natural extreme flood. Operator commissioned a study by CNR and Irstea: discharge evaluation of increasing critical water level of the industrial platform in case of Rhone flooding, with associated uncertainties and probability. The study covered the following points: 1 / determination of the water level-discharge relationship near to the platform and the flooding flow; 2 / calculating the predictive distribution of floods by fitting a GEV law on data available at Saint-Etienne-des-Sorts (1845-2011), Viviers (1920-2011) and Beaucaire (1841-2011), 3 / propagation of uncertainties in hydraulic modeling from the coupling of the statistical tool Promethee from IRSN and hydraulic calculation code 1D Crue from CNR. Simulations using 7000 statistical shots on 9 parameters can help us to identify and to quantify dispersion results according to the variation of one or more parameters at once.