Vers une production en temps réel d'intervalles prédictifs associés aux prévisions de crue dans Vigicrues en France

摘要

Although quantifying uncertainties in modelling is an old topic, many developments have been made over the past fifteen years in the context of flood forecasting, mainly with the development of probabilistic approaches. In France, within the national network for flood forecasting (Vigicrues), developments have been made to propose a post-processing methodology to quantify predictive uncertainty (OTAMIN), which automatically generates confidence intervals around streamflow forecasts, and a tool that is used by forecasters to expertise these confidence intervals (EAO/EXPRESSO). This paper presents the main principles of this general approach, gives an example of its recent application in operational conditions and discusses its usefulness for the users and the general public. Some perspectives of improvement are discussed.