MODELLING BOUNCE-BACK IN WATER CONSUMPTION POST-DROUGHT

摘要

Focused on a case study of Geelong, Victoria, this paper presents the results of a unique comparison of (ⅰ) a custom-built regression model for forecasting total customer water demand and (ⅱ) end-use based water projections using the integrated Supply Demand Planning model (iSDP) model. The regression model used historical data for calibration based on level of restrictions, evapotranspiration, temperature, and rainfall. By selecting a future climate scenario (and any anticipated restriction periods) for the next 10-year period, demand can be projected by the model. By contrast, the end-use model was calibrated to consumption data during drought (rather than long-term averages) to determine the extent to which end-use consumption was suppressed and how much each end-use may be expected to rebound under a range of scenarios. Results from both approaches are contrasted and reflections of the relative strengths of each approach are discussed.