A two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow

摘要

This study extends the single parameter precipitation elasticity of streamflow index into a two parameter climate elasticity index, as a function of both precipitation and temperature, in order to assess climatic effects on annual streamflow. Application of the proposed index to two basins indicates that the single parameter precipitation elasticity index may give a general relationship between precipitation and streamflow in some cases, but that it cannot reflect the complicated non-linear relationship among streamflow, precipitation and temperature. For example, for the Spokane River basin the climate elasticity of streamflow index varies from 2.4 to 0.2, for a precipitation increase of 20%, as temperature varies from 1℃ lower to 1.8℃ higher than the long term mean. Thus a 20% precipitation increase may result in a streamflow increase of 48% if the temperature is 1℃ lower but only a 4% increase if the temperature is 1.8℃ higher than the long-term mean. The proposed method can be applied to other basins to assess potential climate change effects on annual streamflow. The results of the two case studies can inform planning of long-term basin water management strategies taking into account global change scenarios.