Use of groundwater lifetime expectancy for the performance assessment of a deep geologic radioactive waste repository: Application to a Canadian Shield environment

摘要

F. J. Cornaton et al. (2008) introduced the concept of lifetime expectancy as a performance measure of the safety of subsurface repositories, on the basis of the travel time for contaminants released at a certain point in the subsurface to reach the biosphere or compliance area. The methodologies are applied to a hypothetical but realistic Canadian Shield crystalline rock environment, which is considered to be one of the most geologically stable areas on Earth. In an approximately 10 × 10 × 1.5 km~3 hypothetical study area, up to 1000 major and intermediate fracture zones are generated from surface lineament analyses and subsurface surveys. In the study area, mean and probability density of lifetime expectancy are analyzed with realistic geologic and hydrologic shield settings in order to demonstrate the applicability of the theory and the numerical model for optimally locating a deep subsurface repository for the safe storage of spent nuclear fuel. The results demonstrate that, in general, groundwater lifetime expectancy increases with depth and it is greatest inside major matrix blocks. Various sources and aspects of uncertainty are considered, specifically geometric and hydraulic parameters of permeable fracture zones. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the existence and location of permeable fracture zones and the relationship between fracture zone permeability and depth from ground surface are the most significant factors for lifetime expectancy distribution in such a crystalline rock environment. As a consequence, it is successfully demonstrated that the concept of lifetime expectancy can be applied to siting and performance assessment studies for deep geologic repositories in crystalline fractured rock settings.