Impact of climate and land use change on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment

摘要

This paper presents a quantitative comparison of plausible climate and land use change impacts on the hydrology of a large-scale agricultural catchment. An integrated, distributed hydrological model was used to simulate changes in the groundwater system and its discharge to rivers and drains for two climate scenarios (2071-2100). Annual groundwater recharge increased significantly (especially the B2 scenario), giving higher groundwater heads and stream discharges and amplifying the seasonal dynamics significantly. Owing to drier summers, irrigation volumes increased by up to 90% compared to current values. Changing the land use from grass to forest had a minor effect on groundwater recharge, whereas CO_2 effects on transpiration resulted in a relatively large increase in recharge. This study has shown that climate change has the most substantial effect on the hydrology in this catchment, whereas other factors such as irrigation, CO_2 effects on transpiration, and land use changes affect the water balance to a lesser extent.