Bayesian multiresponse calibration of TOPMODEL: Application to the Haute-Mentue catchment, Switzerland

摘要

This paper introduces a general framework that evaluates a numerical Bayesian multiresponse calibration approach based on a Gibbs within Metropolis searching algorithm and a statistical likelihood function. The methodology has been applied with two versions of TOPMODEL on the Haute-Mentue experimental basin in Switzerland. The approach computes the following: the parameter's uncertainty, the parametric uncertainty of the output responses stemming from parameter uncertainty, and the predictive uncertainty of the output responses stemming from an error term including, indiscriminately in a lumped way, model structure and input and output errors. Two case studies are presented: The first one applies this methodology with the classical TOPMODEL to assess the role of two-response calibration (observed discharge and soil saturation deficits) on model parameters and output uncertainty. The second one uses a three-response calibration (observed discharge, silica, and calcium stream water concentrations) with a modified version of TOPMODEL to study the uncertainty of the parameters and of the simulated responses. Despite its limitations, the present multiresponse Bayesian approach proved a valuable tool in uncertainty analyses, and it contributed to a better understanding of the role of the internal variables and the value of additional information for enhancing model structure robustness and for checking the performance of conceptual models.