Multi-Resolution Cointegration Prediction for Runoff and Sediment Load

摘要

With the wavelet transform method, the multi-resolution analysis of runoff and sediment load at Huaxian hydrological station located in the lower reaches of the Weihe River in China is presented to find the varying quasic-periodic waveforms existing in different decomposed time scales. The cointegration theory is introduced to reveal the long-term balance relationship and short-term fluctuations of the original and decomposed runoff and sediment load time series. Thus, considering the decomposed sediment load components in different time scales as the input data series, and the corresponding decomposed runoff component acting as the output data series, the multi-resolution cointegration method is produced. The results show that the multi-resolution cointegration method has the higher prediction accuracy, and the prediction errors are almost less than 5 %.