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Stochastic Optimal Reservoir Operation Management, Applying Group Conflict Resolution Model

机译:随机最优储层运营管理,应用组冲突模型

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摘要

In the present study, qualitative simulation model of reservoir and genetic algorithm optimization model were combined based on fuzzy logic to determine the trade off curve with stochastic quantitative and qualitative objectives. According to contradictory utilities of decision makers with respect to the obtained optimum trade off curve, a model of group conflict resolution was developed in order to determine the best point on the trade off curve from the perspective of decision makers. Using the outcome of conflict resolution model which was indicative of acceptable water quality for all decision makers, the optimization model was re-run, and time series of monthly water opeartion was determined for the agreed quality of beneficiaries. Finally, with the aim of formulating timely policies of operation of the reservoir, the use of probabilistic support vector machines that have the ability to create output possibilities was suggested. The proposed model was used for the operation of 15-Khordad Dam Reservoir, Iran. The results demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the fuzzy optimization model as well as the importance of using group conflict resolution model to provide the utility of decision makers in the operation of the reservoir.
机译:在本研究中,基于模糊逻辑组合了水库和遗传算法优化模型的定性仿真模型,以确定随机定量和定性目标的贸易曲线。根据决策者对获得的最佳贸易曲线的矛盾公用事业,制定了一项集体冲突解决模型,以确定从决策者的角度确定曲线的最佳点。利用对所有决策者的可接受水质的冲突解决模型的结果,重新运行了优化模型,并确定了约定的受益质量的月度水视力的时间序列。最后,随着制定水库的及时运行政策,提出了使用具有产生输出可能性的能力的概率支持向量机。拟议的模型用于伊朗15-Khordad Dam水库的运作。结果展示了模糊优化模型的效率和准确性以及使用集团冲突解决模型的重要性,以提供决策者在水库运作中的效用。

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