Developing a Model for Decision-Makers in Dynamic Modeling of Urban Water System Management

摘要

Water managers may modify many components of urban water systems to minimize water shortage. Since each modification activity has its own positive and negative effects, it is necessary to define an appropriate procedure to predict the consequences of each action. As the parameters of urban water supply and demand system have internal relationships in the time domain, a dynamic model is needed to forecast the result of changes and select the best modification activity. Here the Vensim (R) is applied as a modeling tool to choose the most effective water management activities in Tehran province. It has been found that the annual increase rate of water tariff by 16.4% and assigning 4.5% of revenue on reducing non-revenue water may be the most effective demand management activity to reduce water shortage in Tehran province. It has also been revealed that, even by implementing the most effective demand management activities in Tehran, the amount of required water in the next 10 years is more than the sustainable capacity of its resources and activities like seawater desalination are inevitable to prevent unsustainable use of water sources.