CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IN PHOENIX

摘要

Adapting to climate change will require new ways of thinking about urban growth and water management, particularly in climate sensitive urban regions such as Phoenix. Adaptation tools include scenario planning and simulation models such as WaterSim. These tools acknowledge that today's decisions are made in the context of deep uncertainty about future climate. Exploration of the full range of plausible futures promotes discussion and planning about the steps necessary to avoid future regret. Simulation modeling of complex urban systems draws attention to inherent relationships between land development patterns and future water needs. Today's land-use decisions lock us into land development patterns that require heavy outdoor water use. These patterns are difficult to retrofit. In a rapidly growing urban region like Phoenix, more than half of the year 2050 residential footprint has yet to be built. We can build it in climate smart and water smart ways that hedge against the worst possible consequences of climate change or in prevailing patterns that promote heavy water use. Long-term climate adaptation in Phoenix requires institutional changes to integrate land and water planning, a shift from today's emphasis on supply augmentation to better demand management, and the capacity to make complex water and land decisions under conditions of climatic uncertainty.