Will the water resources of Israel, Palestine and Jordan remain sufficient to permit economic and social development for the foreseeable future?

摘要

Scenario analysis suggests that by 2050 the population of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip and Jordannwill have grown from 17.2 million to between 21.1 and 38.5 million people. These population scenarios arencompared to a range of water resource scenarios that consider the effect of climate change, a possible redistri-nbution of the region’s shared water resources as a result of a peace agreement, or the status quo. This scenarionanalysis shows that under all possible population–water scenarios combinations considered, the water resourcesnof Jordan and Israel remain above the minimum threshold required for social and economic development. Innthe case of the West Bank, water resources may also remain sufficient for all population and climatic scenariosnif the West Bank gains a greater portion of the shared water resources. In the Gaza Strip, however, desalinationnor water imports are required.