3-Day-Ahead Forecasting of Regional Pollution Index for the Pollutants NO_2, CO, SO_2, and O_3 Using Artificial Neural Networks in Athens, Greece

摘要

The difficulty in forecasting concentration trends with a reasonable error is still an open problem. In this paper, an effort has been made to this purpose. Artificial Neural Networks are used in order to forecast the maximum daily value of the European Regional Pollution Index as well as the number of consecutive hours, during the day, with at least one of the pollutants above a threshold concentration, 24 to 72 h ahead. The prediction concerns seven different places within the Greater Athens Area, Greece. The meteorological and air pollution data used in this study have been recorded by the network of the Greek Ministry of the Environment, Physical Planning, and Public Works over a 5-year period, 2001-2005. The hourly values of air pressure and global solarrnirradiance for the same period have been recorded by the National Observatory of Athens. The results are in a very good agreement with the real-monitored data at a statistical significance level of p<0.01.