An Epidemiology Model of Devil Facial Tumor Disease in Tasmanian Devils

摘要

Devil Facial Tumor Disease (DFTD) is a transmissible parasitic cancer that, since the first reported case in 1996, has caused Tasmanian devil populations to decline dramatically. Several strategies such as selective culling and isolation have been suggested by biologists to help ensure that devils will escape extinction. We consider a system of ordinary differential equations used to evaluate these strategies. Our model suggests that selective removal of highly social animals will not significantly contribute to slowing population decline, while decreasing transmission rates through vaccination or other means may significantly help slow the population decline.